Space Weather Canada
Forecast of Energetic Electron Fluence

The above plot shows forecasts (indicated by colored rectangles) of the fluence of highly energetic (relativistic) electrons with energies greater than 2 Mev at an altitude of 6.6 Earth radii in the geosynchronous orbit. The large black dots indicate observed fluence from the GOES-12 satellite, courtesy of Space Environment Center, Boulder, USA. Each colored rectangle indicates the range of the forecast values, and is green below the threshold. However, when it touches or is above the threshold, it turns red, which signals adverse space weather conditions hazardous to geosynchronous satellites. When this happens, there is a high likelihood of internal charging of satellite components by energetic electrons, with possible electric discharges that could result in malfunction or even complete failure of the satellite. The fluence forecast is based on the algorithm of Lam [2002;2004], and the threshold value is from Wrenn and Smith [1996].

References:
Lam, H.-L., Prediction of relativistic electron fluence using magnetic observatory data, in Solar-Terrestrial Magnetic Activity and Space Environment (Proceedings of COSPAR Colloquium Beijing 2001), COSPAR Colloquia Series Vol. 14, 439-442, 2002.

Lam, H.-L., On the prediction of relativistic electron fluence based on its relationship with geomagnetic activity over a solar cycle, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 66, 1703-1714, 2004.

Wrenn, G. L. and R. J. K. Smith, Probability factors governing ESD effects on geosynchronous orbits, IEEE Trans. Nuc. Sci., 43, 2783-2789, 1996.